Bitcoin Surges to $107K, Is a New All-Time High on the Horizon?

Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a powerful recovery, climbing nearly 7% this week to trade above $107,000 by Friday, just shy of its previous all-time high of $111,980.

The surge comes amid a confluence of bullish signals: easing geopolitical tensions, increasing institutional accumulation, a supportive regulatory environment, and strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals.

A Sharp Reversal From Weekend Lows

Bitcoin had tumbled to $98,200 on Sunday June 22, marking a 45-day low. But by Monday, it soared above $105,000 and maintained its momentum through midweek, closing at $107,000 on Wednesday and stabilizing around that level.

This rebound aligned with several market-moving headlines, most notably:

1. Middle East Ceasefire: Former US President Donald Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which helped defuse global market anxiety.

2. Macro Optimism: Investors are pricing in greater odds of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of rates dropping to 3.75% or lower has surged to 53%, up from 38% last week.

3. US GDP Weakness: A Q1 GDP contraction of 0.5%, coupled with subdued jobless claims and a weak USD, supported risk-on assets like crypto.

Technical Signals Confirm the Bullish Shift

Three key indicators are reinforcing the bullish case for Bitcoin:

1. Exchange BTC Reserves Hit 10-Year Low

Data from CryptoQuant shows only 40,000 BTC are being transferred to exchanges daily, the lowest since 2014. Low exchange reserves historically precede major bull runs, as seen in 2016, 2019, and late 2023.

2. Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart

Bitcoin's weekly chart displays a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. The price bounced from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone between $97,900 and $100,700, signaling strong buyer support.

3. Strengthening Institutional Demand

Several public companies have accumulated BTC this week. Highlights include:

1. Metaplanet: Added a total of 2,665 BTC this week, bringing its holdings to 12,345 BTC.

2. ProCap BTC, LLC: Acquired 4,932 BTC following a $1B merger and $750M funding round.

3. Blockchain Group: Participated in BTC buying alongside corporate peers.

ETF Inflows Accelerate

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing robust inflows, with over $1.71 billion added in the past week, the highest since May.

This 13-day streak of net inflows highlights the growing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among institutional and retail investors alike.

Regulatory Winds Shifting in Favor of Crypto

Two major regulatory developments have further bolstered confidence:

1. Fed Softens Stance: The US Federal Reserve dropped “reputational risk” from its bank oversight rules, a move that lifts restrictions on crypto banking access and custody services.

2. Crypto-Friendly Legislation: A bipartisan Senate bill would clarify when crypto is classified as a commodity vs. a security and give exchanges a clearer path to compliance under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Additionally, William Pulte of the FHFA announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are preparing to count crypto assets for mortgage qualification, potentially revolutionizing crypto’s use in traditional finance.

Mining Disruptions and Hashrate Dip

Despite bullish sentiment, Bitcoin's hashrate dropped 8% over the past week, from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s.

While some suspect geopolitical disruptions in Iran (a major hub for unregulated mining), others point to power outages in the U.S., such as the April storm in Texas and Oklahoma, which caused a temporary 27% drop in global hashpower.

Will Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High?

From a technical perspective, BTC is primed for more gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating moderate bullish momentum. The MACD also flashed a bullish crossover on Thursday, a classic buy signal.

To retest its all-time high of $111,980, BTC would need just a 5.13% push from current levels.

If this barrier is broken, analysts see the potential for a breakout to $120,000 in the coming weeks, especially if ETF inflows remain strong and macro conditions continue to favor risk assets.

Conclusion: A Bullish Storm Brewing

Bitcoin’s recovery from sub-$100K levels has been swift and well-supported by technical, institutional, and macroeconomic factors.

While volatility remains a constant, the building momentum suggests BTC could be on the cusp of another historic breakout.

As the crypto market continues to evolve rapidly, staying informed is crucial.

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