The space economy presents new investment opportunities as commercial space resource ventures grow, but investors must assess risks and regulatory challenges.

Most investors build their portfolios through traditional assets such as shares, property and bonds. However, a new investment horizon has emerged that extends beyond Earth's atmosphere. The space economy represents a potential opportunity for forward-thinking investors willing to explore unconventional markets, but questions remain about how best to participate in this sector.

The space industry continues its rapid expansion, with estimates suggesting it could grow from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-missing-element-of-your-strategy" target="_blank">approximately $US500 billion in 2022</a>&nbsp;to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.space.commerce.gov/remarks-on-the-trillion-dollar-space-economy/" target="_blank">multi-trillion dollar industry by 2040</a>. While current growth focuses on communications, Earth observation and navigation, experts forecast significant expansion into cislunar (between the Earth and the moon) space.

“The long-term outlook for commercial space resources is promising, with space resource activity being essential for the commercial development of cislunar space, due to the ‘tyranny of the rocket equation’, where there is an exponential increase in cost as a function of distance from the Earth,” said UNSW Engineering PhD student Ben McKeown, who has led a number of co-authored research papers on the topic.

An increasing number of private sector companies targeting space resources, including Astroforge (a US-based aerospace firm that plans to mine asteroids to extract valuable minerals), Interlune (which has developed novel machinery and processes to detect and extract natural resources from space) and ispace (a Japanese firm that develops robotic spacecraft and technologies to discover, map and use natural lunar resources).

However, Mr McKeown said, the reality was that sustainable commercial space resource activity was still some way off.

“Important considerations for investors in space resource activities include current regulatory uncertainty, the lack of defined markets and the lack of geological resource definition. Over and above these factors, potential investors should consider the credibility and feasibility of a company’s technological capabilities and mission plans,” he said.

Mr McKeown, who is a research student at UNSW’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/research/acser" target="_blank">Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research</a>&nbsp;and also serves as Chairman at Tinka Resources, a Canadian-based exploration and development company, highlighted the importance of evaluating tangible milestones, validating partnerships with entities such as NASA, and successful navigation of regulatory frameworks in helping investors identify opportunities with a higher likelihood of success and mitigate speculative risks.

Potential returns from investing in space resources

Mr McKeown’s most recent research paper,&nbsp;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101663" target="_blank">The space resources fund: A solution to the space resources benefit sharing dilemma?</a>, examines various types of funding for commercialising space resources.

Co-authored by UNSW Business School&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/jeff-coulton" target="_blank">Associate Professor Jeff Coulton</a>&nbsp;and UNSW Engineering academics&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/andrew-dempster" target="_blank">Professor Andrew Dempster</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/serkan-saydam" target="_blank">Professor Serkan Saydam</a>, the paper analysed sovereign wealth funds, development funds, and private equity ventures to determine which characteristics might best serve the dual aims of industry development and benefit sharing.

Published in&nbsp;Space Policy, the research paper explained how a proposed Space Resources Fund would operate with a double bottom line mandate: generating monetary benefits from fund activities for global benefit sharing, while providing investment capital to facilitate the development of industry that supports the fund.

Financial modelling conducted by the researchers showed that if the fund achieved a 10% annual return over 50 years, it could grow to $186 billion from an initial $2 billion investment. At a 12% return, this figure increases to $439 billion over the same period.

This contrasted favourably with the potential income from royalties, which the authors found would generate significantly less value. Even with an 8% royalty rate on a hypothetical lunar ice mining industry growing at 6% annually over 50 years, the total value generated would be a fraction of the investment value created by the space resources fund approach.

A/Prof. Coulton said it was probable that progress in commercial space mining activities would take much longer than in many traditional resource sectors.

“Space mining ventures will operate on decade-long horizons before they would be likely to see significant returns, so investors should research whether a company has a robust plan as well as the organisational capabilities to last,” he said.

“The markets for in-space resource trade aren’t currently developed (we need both the demand for and supply of materials in space), and the technical feasibility tests are in their very early days.”

As such, A/Prof. Coulton said, investors should try to understand the technology, partnerships, and regulatory preparations.

“They’ll also need to investigate how businesses plan to deal with legal uncertainties: regulations around resource ownership and the right to mine celestial bodies are still evolving, so it will be crucial to invest in projects with a clear approach to navigating any shifts in that landscape,” he said.

Another key consideration in any early-stage investing would be the leadership and extent of proven expertise of the team. A/Prof. Coulton said a promising space resource startup should ideally have access to sufficient funding, strong engineering teams, and a track record of successfully managing large-scale, capital-intensive projects.

“The emerging investment opportunities will be very exciting, but investors will need patience and a willingness to embrace the uncertain nature of the projects and their outcomes,” he said.

While certain risks, such as subsurface or geological risk in the context of space resources may be comparable to those on Earth, Mr McKeown said, investing in space resources would carry unique risks when compared to terrestrial resource investments.

“Technology risks are substantial, given the complexity of operating safely and effectively in space. Regulatory uncertainty also poses challenges, as international space law and property rights on celestial bodies remain in early development,” he said.

Additionally, market risks such as unpredictable demand and pricing structure were significant at this point. Factoring all these risks into account, Mr McKeown asserted that investors should be prepared for the volatility and longer-term horizons associated with these innovative ventures.

A/Prof. Coulton echoed Mr McKeown’s observations and said investing in space resources would be considered riskier than that of many established Earth-based ventures. “This is due largely to the experimental nature of extraction and processing methods and the harsh conditions of outer space,” he said.

With Earth-based mining, A/Prof. Coulton said, there was long-standing proven technology as well as existing legal frameworks that helped mitigate some of the uncertainty. In space, even well-funded and organised missions would face surprises – from launch failures to hardware malfunctions to shifting international regulations – that might rapidly reshape the ownership of off-Earth resources.

Extended operational timelines can also mean waiting years or even decades to realise a commercial return, he added.

For those considering investment opportunities in the space resources sector, the research suggests a measured approach. Early stages of industry development will likely require significant capital with high-risk profiles, but offer potential for substantial returns.

The fund structure proposed by the UNSW research team could provide a middle path that satisfies both commercial interests and international obligations regarding benefit sharing. Rather than imposing potentially burdensome royalties on nascent space resources fund projects, the fund approach could generate greater long-term value while supporting industry development.

“I think that the long-term outlook for space resource investments is generally very positive, provided you recognise it IS a long-term consideration,” said A/Prof. Coulton. “As reusable rocket technology advances and launch costs fall (which we are currently seeing especially with SpaceX), we’re steadily approaching a point where space-based projects become more economically viable.”

This shift could prompt even more investment and innovation, with early successes boosting both investor confidence and therefore the capital available for further ventures. Government support was also likely to grow, said A/Prof. Coulton, who predicted nations would become more focused on securing strategic resources and maintaining a presence beyond Earth.

Mr McKeown also said the long-term investment outlook for space resources was promising, particularly as humanity expanded its footprint beyond Earth and an economy in cislunar space evolved.

“The space economy is projected to significantly expand in the coming decades, which could drive demand for water and construction materials in space, in addition to helium-3, demand for which could develop on Earth in markets such as quantum computing and fusion energy,” he said.

“Investors who enter this sector early, with a well-informed and patient strategy, may ultimately position themselves to benefit from what could become one of the defining industries of the next century.”

The space economy presents new investment opportunities as commercial space resource ventures grow, but investors must assess risks and regulatory challenges.Most investors build their portfolios through traditional assets such as shares, property and bonds. However, a new investment horizon has emerged that extends beyond Earth's atmosphere. The space economy represents a potential opportunity for forward-thinking investors willing to explore unconventional markets, but questions remain about how best to participate in this sector.The space industry continues its rapid expansion, with estimates suggesting it could grow from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-missing-element-of-your-strategy" target="_blank">approximately $US500 billion in 2022</a>&nbsp;to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.space.commerce.gov/remarks-on-the-trillion-dollar-space-economy/" target="_blank">multi-trillion dollar industry by 2040</a>. While current growth focuses on communications, Earth observation and navigation, experts forecast significant expansion into cislunar (between the Earth and the moon) space.“The long-term outlook for commercial space resources is promising, with space resource activity being essential for the commercial development of cislunar space, due to the ‘tyranny of the rocket equation’, where there is an exponential increase in cost as a function of distance from the Earth,” said UNSW Engineering PhD student Ben McKeown, who has led a number of co-authored research papers on the topic.An increasing number of private sector companies targeting space resources, including Astroforge (a US-based aerospace firm that plans to mine asteroids to extract valuable minerals), Interlune (which has developed novel machinery and processes to detect and extract natural resources from space) and ispace (a Japanese firm that develops robotic spacecraft and technologies to discover, map and use natural lunar resources).However, Mr McKeown said, the reality was that sustainable commercial space resource activity was still some way off.“Important considerations for investors in space resource activities include current regulatory uncertainty, the lack of defined markets and the lack of geological resource definition. Over and above these factors, potential investors should consider the credibility and feasibility of a company’s technological capabilities and mission plans,” he said.Mr McKeown, who is a research student at UNSW’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/research/acser" target="_blank">Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research</a>&nbsp;and also serves as Chairman at Tinka Resources, a Canadian-based exploration and development company, highlighted the importance of evaluating tangible milestones, validating partnerships with entities such as NASA, and successful navigation of regulatory frameworks in helping investors identify opportunities with a higher likelihood of success and mitigate speculative risks.<h2>Potential returns from investing in space resources</h2>Mr McKeown’s most recent research paper,&nbsp;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101663" target="_blank">The space resources fund: A solution to the space resources benefit sharing dilemma?</a>, examines various types of funding for commercialising space resources.Co-authored by UNSW Business School&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/jeff-coulton" target="_blank">Associate Professor Jeff Coulton</a>&nbsp;and UNSW Engineering academics&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/andrew-dempster" target="_blank">Professor Andrew Dempster</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/staff/serkan-saydam" target="_blank">Professor Serkan Saydam</a>, the paper analysed sovereign wealth funds, development funds, and private equity ventures to determine which characteristics might best serve the dual aims of industry development and benefit sharing.Published in&nbsp;Space Policy, the research paper explained how a proposed Space Resources Fund would operate with a double bottom line mandate: generating monetary benefits from fund activities for global benefit sharing, while providing investment capital to facilitate the development of industry that supports the fund.Financial modelling conducted by the researchers showed that if the fund achieved a 10% annual return over 50 years, it could grow to $186 billion from an initial $2 billion investment. At a 12% return, this figure increases to $439 billion over the same period.This contrasted favourably with the potential income from royalties, which the authors found would generate significantly less value. Even with an 8% royalty rate on a hypothetical lunar ice mining industry growing at 6% annually over 50 years, the total value generated would be a fraction of the investment value created by the space resources fund approach.<h2>Investment timeframes and considerations</h2>A/Prof. Coulton said it was probable that progress in commercial space mining activities would take much longer than in many traditional resource sectors.“Space mining ventures will operate on decade-long horizons before they would be likely to see significant returns, so investors should research whether a company has a robust plan as well as the organisational capabilities to last,” he said.“The markets for in-space resource trade aren’t currently developed (we need both the demand for and supply of materials in space), and the technical feasibility tests are in their very early days.”As such, A/Prof. Coulton said, investors should try to understand the technology, partnerships, and regulatory preparations.“They’ll also need to investigate how businesses plan to deal with legal uncertainties: regulations around resource ownership and the right to mine celestial bodies are still evolving, so it will be crucial to invest in projects with a clear approach to navigating any shifts in that landscape,” he said.Another key consideration in any early-stage investing would be the leadership and extent of proven expertise of the team. A/Prof. Coulton said a promising space resource startup should ideally have access to sufficient funding, strong engineering teams, and a track record of successfully managing large-scale, capital-intensive projects.“The emerging investment opportunities will be very exciting, but investors will need patience and a willingness to embrace the uncertain nature of the projects and their outcomes,” he said.<h2>The risks of space resources investing</h2>While certain risks, such as subsurface or geological risk in the context of space resources may be comparable to those on Earth, Mr McKeown said, investing in space resources would carry unique risks when compared to terrestrial resource investments.“Technology risks are substantial, given the complexity of operating safely and effectively in space. Regulatory uncertainty also poses challenges, as international space law and property rights on celestial bodies remain in early development,” he said.Additionally, market risks such as unpredictable demand and pricing structure were significant at this point. Factoring all these risks into account, Mr McKeown asserted that investors should be prepared for the volatility and longer-term horizons associated with these innovative ventures.A/Prof. Coulton echoed Mr McKeown’s observations and said investing in space resources would be considered riskier than that of many established Earth-based ventures. “This is due largely to the experimental nature of extraction and processing methods and the harsh conditions of outer space,” he said.With Earth-based mining, A/Prof. Coulton said, there was long-standing proven technology as well as existing legal frameworks that helped mitigate some of the uncertainty. In space, even well-funded and organised missions would face surprises – from launch failures to hardware malfunctions to shifting international regulations – that might rapidly reshape the ownership of off-Earth resources.Extended operational timelines can also mean waiting years or even decades to realise a commercial return, he added.<h2>A long-term investment outlook</h2>For those considering investment opportunities in the space resources sector, the research suggests a measured approach. Early stages of industry development will likely require significant capital with high-risk profiles, but offer potential for substantial returns.The fund structure proposed by the UNSW research team could provide a middle path that satisfies both commercial interests and international obligations regarding benefit sharing. Rather than imposing potentially burdensome royalties on nascent space resources fund projects, the fund approach could generate greater long-term value while supporting industry development.“I think that the long-term outlook for space resource investments is generally very positive, provided you recognise it IS a long-term consideration,” said A/Prof. Coulton. “As reusable rocket technology advances and launch costs fall (which we are currently seeing especially with SpaceX), we’re steadily approaching a point where space-based projects become more economically viable.”This shift could prompt even more investment and innovation, with early successes boosting both investor confidence and therefore the capital available for further ventures. Government support was also likely to grow, said A/Prof. Coulton, who predicted nations would become more focused on securing strategic resources and maintaining a presence beyond Earth.Mr McKeown also said the long-term investment outlook for space resources was promising, particularly as humanity expanded its footprint beyond Earth and an economy in cislunar space evolved.“The space economy is projected to significantly expand in the coming decades, which could drive demand for water and construction materials in space, in addition to helium-3, demand for which could develop on Earth in markets such as quantum computing and fusion energy,” he said.“Investors who enter this sector early, with a well-informed and patient strategy, may ultimately position themselves to benefit from what could become one of the defining industries of the next century.”

Securities / FX / Investment Trusts

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STEM (Science, Tech, Engineering, Math)

Is now a good time to invest in space resources?

UNSW leads the way for Australian universities, transitioning to renewable electric energy across all Sydney residential colleges. The replacement of outdated gas systems is a key milestone as the University strides toward its net zero emissions goal.

UNSW Sydney has ditched gas and adopted clean, renewable electric power&nbsp;for all student accommodation sites, kitchens,&nbsp;childcare, sports and hospitality facilities at the Kensington and Paddington campuses.

The current upgrade prevents around 700 tonnes of CO2 emissions per yearUniversity-wide electrification due by 2030UNSW is on track toachieve net zero by 2050.&nbsp;

Better facilities, healthier environments

At UNSW’s Goldstein Hall in Kensington - it’s&nbsp;cooking with gas, no more! The&nbsp;kitchen serves more than 1,300 meals daily. Senior Manager of Energy and Utilities at UNSW, Jose Bilbao, said the now fully electrified commercial kitchen had revolutionised operations.&nbsp;&nbsp;

“It has been absolutely rewarding seeing the kitchen before and after,” he said. “The fryers don't produce fumes when we're using them, so it's a lot healthier here, much better air quality, it’s cooler and we're using less energy.”

Head Chef at Goldstein Hall, Eve Wannasorn, said the change from a gas-powered to electric kitchen had been positive for both staff and students. “Making a stew for around 300 people used to take about three hours. Now it’s around 45 minutes,” she said. “The food tastes nice. It's fresher. And chefs don’t need to waste time changing oil manually. It means the quality of the food is much better.”

UNSW is leading the charge to electrification for Australian universities. This first phase of UNSW’s electrification program&nbsp;has&nbsp;reduced UNSW’s emissions from natural gas by an estimated 10%.&nbsp;Across all UNSW Sydney colleges, gas-powered systems have been replaced with:

34 heat pump-operated dryers and 34 washers31 induction cooktops and 10 electric barbecuesNew high-efficiency electric commercial kitchen appliances such as fryers, pressurised Bratt pans, and dishwashing systems8 domestic hot water heat pumps, with a total heating capacity of 400 kW, and 18 hot water tanks (total of more than 12,000 litres of hot water), replacing more than 20 instant hot water gas units.

All electrical amenities are powered by renewable solar energy, thanks to the University’s on-site solar system and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.inside.unsw.edu.au/innovation-and-engagement/unsw-flicks-the-switch-on-100-renewable-electricity" target="_blank">Sunraysia Solar Farm</a>&nbsp;through a solar Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).&nbsp;UNSW is expected to save 1.25 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the 15-year term of agreement.

Chief Property Officer at UNSW, Timothy Beattie, said the transition had set an example for the broader Australian industry. “Electrification is not only possible, and critical to achieve the Paris agreement, but also desired as it provides so many direct and indirect benefits, like better air quality, operational efficiencies, and reduction of fugitive emissions,” he said.

“This is an important investment for the University and the community. Once the program is completed, we'll save around 155,000 GJ of gas per year. That’s like removing more than 5,300 cars from the road.”

UNSW is one of the world’s leading universities for environmental and social sustainability, ranked 12th&nbsp;globally.

UNSW leads the way for Australian universities, transitioning to renewable electric energy across all Sydney residential colleges. The replacement of outdated gas systems is a key milestone as the University strides toward its net zero emissions goal.UNSW Sydney has ditched gas and adopted clean, renewable electric power&nbsp;for all student accommodation sites, kitchens,&nbsp;childcare, sports and hospitality facilities at the Kensington and Paddington campuses.The current upgrade prevents around 700 tonnes of CO2 emissions per yearUniversity-wide electrification due by 2030UNSW is on track toachieve net zero by 2050.&nbsp;Better facilities, healthier environmentsAt UNSW’s Goldstein Hall in Kensington - it’s&nbsp;cooking with gas, no more! The&nbsp;kitchen serves more than 1,300 meals daily. Senior Manager of Energy and Utilities at UNSW, Jose Bilbao, said the now fully electrified commercial kitchen had revolutionised operations.&nbsp;&nbsp;“It has been absolutely rewarding seeing the kitchen before and after,” he said. “The fryers don't produce fumes when we're using them, so it's a lot healthier here, much better air quality, it’s cooler and we're using less energy.”Head Chef at Goldstein Hall, Eve Wannasorn, said the change from a gas-powered to electric kitchen had been positive for both staff and students. “Making a stew for around 300 people used to take about three hours. Now it’s around 45 minutes,” she said. “The food tastes nice. It's fresher. And chefs don’t need to waste time changing oil manually. It means the quality of the food is much better.”Looking ahead to net zeroUNSW is leading the charge to electrification for Australian universities. This first phase of UNSW’s electrification program&nbsp;has&nbsp;reduced UNSW’s emissions from natural gas by an estimated 10%.&nbsp;Across all UNSW Sydney colleges, gas-powered systems have been replaced with:34 heat pump-operated dryers and 34 washers31 induction cooktops and 10 electric barbecuesNew high-efficiency electric commercial kitchen appliances such as fryers, pressurised Bratt pans, and dishwashing systems8 domestic hot water heat pumps, with a total heating capacity of 400 kW, and 18 hot water tanks (total of more than 12,000 litres of hot water), replacing more than 20 instant hot water gas units.All electrical amenities are powered by renewable solar energy, thanks to the University’s on-site solar system and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.inside.unsw.edu.au/innovation-and-engagement/unsw-flicks-the-switch-on-100-renewable-electricity" target="_blank">Sunraysia Solar Farm</a>&nbsp;through a solar Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).&nbsp;UNSW is expected to save 1.25 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the 15-year term of agreement.Chief Property Officer at UNSW, Timothy Beattie, said the transition had set an example for the broader Australian industry. “Electrification is not only possible, and critical to achieve the Paris agreement, but also desired as it provides so many direct and indirect benefits, like better air quality, operational efficiencies, and reduction of fugitive emissions,” he said.“This is an important investment for the University and the community. Once the program is completed, we'll save around 155,000 GJ of gas per year. That’s like removing more than 5,300 cars from the road.”UNSW is one of the world’s leading universities for environmental and social sustainability, ranked 12th&nbsp;globally.

Electricity / Gas / Resources / Energy

Environment / SGDs / Recycling

UNSW Sydney achieves electrification milestone

Climate scientists are overall less trusted than other types of scientists, according to a&nbsp;<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/add1f9" target="_blank">new study</a>&nbsp;led by the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk &amp; Response (ICRR).

Dr Omid Ghasemi and colleagues compared responses from a survey of nearly 70,000 people across 68 countries on the trustworthiness of climate scientists with a broad range of other ideological and demographic factors.&nbsp;

“We don’t exist in a vacuum, and this research allows a new lens to view different factors that may influence how people view climate scientists – and the forces undermining public confidence in their work,” Dr Ghasemi says.

The results, rated on a 5-point scale from 1 (not at all), to 5 (very strongly), revealed an overall average trust rating of 3.5 for climate scientists worldwide compared to 3.62 for scientists in general.&nbsp;

However, six countries, and China in particular, bucked the trend entirely, indicating significantly higher trust in climate scientists.

Political polarisation putting ice caps at risk&nbsp;

The research showed people with right-leaning political views tended to trust climate scientists less overall, including in the US, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and much of Europe.&nbsp;

“It’s arguably not a surprise that you see significant increases in the trust gap between climate scientists and other scientists in these countries,” Dr Ghasemi says.&nbsp;&nbsp;

“They have had decades of coordinated efforts by conservative political actors and fossil fuel interests to politicise climate science and undermine its credibility.”&nbsp;

Interesting too, says Dr Ghasemi, are those countries which showed the opposite relationship, or no significant association between ideology and trust in climate scientists.&nbsp;

“In some Eastern European, Southeast Asian, and African countries, right-leaning individuals tended to trust scientists and climate scientists more,” Dr Ghasemi says. &nbsp;

“This might suggest that political leadership attitudes, rather than peoples’ political views, better explain these differences in trust.”

Demographic differences behind doubts&nbsp;

The survey data, collected as part of the collaborative Trust in Science and Science-Related Populism (TISP) project, covered a total 111 variables.&nbsp;

Dr Ghasemi’s analysis of the data collected reveals some non-political factors may also be linked to higher trust in climate scientists, such as living in cities, having stronger religious beliefs, valuing science or the scientific method, or being a younger rather than older adult.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, people who support social hierarchies and those who believe common sense is better than scientific expertise are less likely to trust climate scientists.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/8JEf1/?v=6" target="_blank">The difference in trust between climate scientists and scientists in general</a>

<a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/DQn2H/?v=7" target="_blank">Average trust in climate scientists versus scientists in general</a>

<a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/guuJY/?v=8" target="_blank">The relationship between political orientation and trust in climate scientists</a>

Climate scientists are overall less trusted than other types of scientists, according to a&nbsp;<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/add1f9" target="_blank">new study</a>&nbsp;led by the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk &amp; Response (ICRR).Dr Omid Ghasemi and colleagues compared responses from a survey of nearly 70,000 people across 68 countries on the trustworthiness of climate scientists with a broad range of other ideological and demographic factors.&nbsp;“We don’t exist in a vacuum, and this research allows a new lens to view different factors that may influence how people view climate scientists – and the forces undermining public confidence in their work,” Dr Ghasemi says.The results, rated on a 5-point scale from 1 (not at all), to 5 (very strongly), revealed an overall average trust rating of 3.5 for climate scientists worldwide compared to 3.62 for scientists in general.&nbsp;However, six countries, and China in particular, bucked the trend entirely, indicating significantly higher trust in climate scientists.Political polarisation putting ice caps at risk&nbsp;The research showed people with right-leaning political views tended to trust climate scientists less overall, including in the US, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and much of Europe.&nbsp;“It’s arguably not a surprise that you see significant increases in the trust gap between climate scientists and other scientists in these countries,” Dr Ghasemi says.&nbsp;&nbsp;“They have had decades of coordinated efforts by conservative political actors and fossil fuel interests to politicise climate science and undermine its credibility.”&nbsp;Interesting too, says Dr Ghasemi, are those countries which showed the opposite relationship, or no significant association between ideology and trust in climate scientists.&nbsp;“In some Eastern European, Southeast Asian, and African countries, right-leaning individuals tended to trust scientists and climate scientists more,” Dr Ghasemi says. &nbsp;“This might suggest that political leadership attitudes, rather than peoples’ political views, better explain these differences in trust.”Demographic differences behind doubts&nbsp;The survey data, collected as part of the collaborative Trust in Science and Science-Related Populism (TISP) project, covered a total 111 variables.&nbsp;Dr Ghasemi’s analysis of the data collected reveals some non-political factors may also be linked to higher trust in climate scientists, such as living in cities, having stronger religious beliefs, valuing science or the scientific method, or being a younger rather than older adult.&nbsp;Meanwhile, people who support social hierarchies and those who believe common sense is better than scientific expertise are less likely to trust climate scientists.&nbsp;Interactive maps are available:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/8JEf1/?v=6" target="_blank">The difference in trust between climate scientists and scientists in general</a><a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/DQn2H/?v=7" target="_blank">Average trust in climate scientists versus scientists in general</a><a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/guuJY/?v=8" target="_blank">The relationship between political orientation and trust in climate scientists</a>

Most people trust climate scientists less than other scientists – but not everywhere

Scientists have now discovered the oldest ancestor for all the Australian tree frogs, with distant links to the tree frogs of South America.

Newly discovered evidence of Australia’s earliest species of tree frog challenges what we know about when Australian and South American frogs parted ways on the evolutionary tree.

Previously, scientists believed Australian and South American tree frogs separated from each other about 33 million years ago.

But in a study published today in&nbsp;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02724634.2025.2477815" target="_blank">Journal of Vertebrate Palaeontology</a>, palaeontologists from UNSW Sydney say the new species,&nbsp;Litoria tylerantiqua, is now at about 55 million years old, the earliest known member of the pelodryadid family of Australian tree frogs.

The study is based on fossils unearthed from Murgon on the traditional lands of the Waka Waka people of south-eastern Queensland. The new species,&nbsp;Litoria tylerantiqua, is named in honour of the late Michael Tyler, a renowned Australian herpetologist globally celebrated for his research on frogs and toads.

“It is only fitting to name Australia’s earliest tree frog in honour of a man who was a giant in Australian frog research and in particular the first to explore the fossil record for Australian frogs,” says study lead author Dr Roy Farman, an adjunct associate lecturer with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/science/our-schools/bees" target="_blank">UNSW School of Biological, Earth &amp; and Environmental Sciences</a>.

Evolutionary history of Australian tree frogs

Around 55 million years ago, Australia, Antarctica and South America were linked together as the last remnants of the southern supercontinent Gondwana. Global climates were warmer during this period, while a forested corridor linked South America and Australia.

Up until now, it was thought the earliest Australian tree frogs came from the Late Oligocene (about 26 million years ago) and the Early Miocene (23 million years ago). Fossils of the Late Oligocene were found at Kangaroo Well in the Northern Territory and Etadunna Formation at Lake Palankarinna, South Australia, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2019/07/plenty-of-life-in-them-yet--25-years-since-world-heritage-listin" target="_blank">Riversleigh World Heritage Area</a>&nbsp;in Queensland revealed tree frogs from the Early Miocene.

But the new species extends the fossil record of pelodryadids by approximately 30 million years, to a time potentially close to the divergence of Australian tree frogs from the South American tree frogs.

Previous estimates based on molecular clock studies – a method scientists use to figure out when different species split from a common ancestor by looking at the rate of genetic changes over time – suggested that Australian and South American tree frogs separated from each other at about 33 million years ago.

“Our research indicates that that date is at least 22 million years too young,” Dr Farman says.

“While molecular studies are important for understanding the evolutionary relationships of different groups of animals, these studies should be calibrated using knowledge from the fossil record and in this case the fossil record provides a more accurate time for separation of the southern world’s tree frogs.”

Using new technology to study ancient frogs

To conduct this research, the authors used CT scans of spirit-preserved frogs from Australian museum collections to compare the three-dimensional shape of the fossil bones with those of living species. The technique – called three-dimensional geometric morphometrics – has only been used on fossil frogs once before. Using these new methods, they were able to unravel the relationships of these fossils to all other groups of frogs living and extinct.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

“We had a real problem at the start of this study because the pelvic bones of most living frogs were invisible inside whole pickled frogs rather than available for study as skeletons,” Dr Farman says.

“Museums understandably want to ensure these often unique or rare pickled specimens remain intact for molecular studies because DNA can be obtained from their soft tissues. This meant that instead of skeletonising these specimens, we needed instead to make CT scans of them, enabling us to create 3D models of their otherwise invisible skeletons.

“Using these cutting-edge investigative methods, we were able to determine from the shape of the fossil ilia – one of three bones that make up each side of the pelvis – that this new Murgon species of frog is more closely related to the Australian tree frogs (pelodryadids) than the South American tree frogs (phyllomedusids).”

Seasoned survivors that outlasted the dinosaurs

Litoria tylerantiqua&nbsp;joins the only other Murgon frog, the ground-dwelling&nbsp;Platyplectrum casca&nbsp;(previously described as&nbsp;Lechriodus casca), as the oldest frogs known from Australia. Both have living relatives in Australia and New Guinea demonstrating remarkable resilience over time.

“Despite their delicate nature, frogs have been surprisingly successful at surviving several mass extinction events since their origins about 250 million years ago, including the mass extinction 66 million years ago that took out the non-flying dinosaurs,” Dr Farman says.

“Although global extinction events triggered by human activities – such as rapid climate change and the spread of chytrid fungus – may be among the worst challenges frogs have had to face, the fossil record could reveal how some frog groups overcame previous challenges, perhaps by adapting to new, less-threatening habitats. This could provide clues about how we might be able to help by translocating some threatened frogs into more future-secure habitats.”

Frogs such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2024/02/how-palaeoconservation-can-rescue-animals-at-the-edge-of-existen" target="_blank">the southern corroboree frog</a>&nbsp;are threatened in their current habitats which have become more hostile due to climate change. The authors say that if the fossil record shows physically similar frogs living in very different habitats, today’s frogs may benefit by being reintroduced into similar environments.

Scientists have now discovered the oldest ancestor for all the Australian tree frogs, with distant links to the tree frogs of South America.Newly discovered evidence of Australia’s earliest species of tree frog challenges what we know about when Australian and South American frogs parted ways on the evolutionary tree.Previously, scientists believed Australian and South American tree frogs separated from each other about 33 million years ago.But in a study published today in&nbsp;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02724634.2025.2477815" target="_blank">Journal of Vertebrate Palaeontology</a>, palaeontologists from UNSW Sydney say the new species,&nbsp;Litoria tylerantiqua, is now at about 55 million years old, the earliest known member of the pelodryadid family of Australian tree frogs.The study is based on fossils unearthed from Murgon on the traditional lands of the Waka Waka people of south-eastern Queensland. The new species,&nbsp;Litoria tylerantiqua, is named in honour of the late Michael Tyler, a renowned Australian herpetologist globally celebrated for his research on frogs and toads.“It is only fitting to name Australia’s earliest tree frog in honour of a man who was a giant in Australian frog research and in particular the first to explore the fossil record for Australian frogs,” says study lead author Dr Roy Farman, an adjunct associate lecturer with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/science/our-schools/bees" target="_blank">UNSW School of Biological, Earth &amp; and Environmental Sciences</a>.Evolutionary history of Australian tree frogsAround 55 million years ago, Australia, Antarctica and South America were linked together as the last remnants of the southern supercontinent Gondwana. Global climates were warmer during this period, while a forested corridor linked South America and Australia.Up until now, it was thought the earliest Australian tree frogs came from the Late Oligocene (about 26 million years ago) and the Early Miocene (23 million years ago). Fossils of the Late Oligocene were found at Kangaroo Well in the Northern Territory and Etadunna Formation at Lake Palankarinna, South Australia, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2019/07/plenty-of-life-in-them-yet--25-years-since-world-heritage-listin" target="_blank">Riversleigh World Heritage Area</a>&nbsp;in Queensland revealed tree frogs from the Early Miocene.But the new species extends the fossil record of pelodryadids by approximately 30 million years, to a time potentially close to the divergence of Australian tree frogs from the South American tree frogs.Previous estimates based on molecular clock studies – a method scientists use to figure out when different species split from a common ancestor by looking at the rate of genetic changes over time – suggested that Australian and South American tree frogs separated from each other at about 33 million years ago.“Our research indicates that that date is at least 22 million years too young,” Dr Farman says.“While molecular studies are important for understanding the evolutionary relationships of different groups of animals, these studies should be calibrated using knowledge from the fossil record and in this case the fossil record provides a more accurate time for separation of the southern world’s tree frogs.”Using new technology to study ancient frogsTo conduct this research, the authors used CT scans of spirit-preserved frogs from Australian museum collections to compare the three-dimensional shape of the fossil bones with those of living species. The technique – called three-dimensional geometric morphometrics – has only been used on fossil frogs once before. Using these new methods, they were able to unravel the relationships of these fossils to all other groups of frogs living and extinct.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;“We had a real problem at the start of this study because the pelvic bones of most living frogs were invisible inside whole pickled frogs rather than available for study as skeletons,” Dr Farman says.“Museums understandably want to ensure these often unique or rare pickled specimens remain intact for molecular studies because DNA can be obtained from their soft tissues. This meant that instead of skeletonising these specimens, we needed instead to make CT scans of them, enabling us to create 3D models of their otherwise invisible skeletons.“Using these cutting-edge investigative methods, we were able to determine from the shape of the fossil ilia – one of three bones that make up each side of the pelvis – that this new Murgon species of frog is more closely related to the Australian tree frogs (pelodryadids) than the South American tree frogs (phyllomedusids).”Seasoned survivors that outlasted the dinosaursLitoria tylerantiqua&nbsp;joins the only other Murgon frog, the ground-dwelling&nbsp;Platyplectrum casca&nbsp;(previously described as&nbsp;Lechriodus casca), as the oldest frogs known from Australia. Both have living relatives in Australia and New Guinea demonstrating remarkable resilience over time.“Despite their delicate nature, frogs have been surprisingly successful at surviving several mass extinction events since their origins about 250 million years ago, including the mass extinction 66 million years ago that took out the non-flying dinosaurs,” Dr Farman says.“Although global extinction events triggered by human activities – such as rapid climate change and the spread of chytrid fungus – may be among the worst challenges frogs have had to face, the fossil record could reveal how some frog groups overcame previous challenges, perhaps by adapting to new, less-threatening habitats. This could provide clues about how we might be able to help by translocating some threatened frogs into more future-secure habitats.”Frogs such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2024/02/how-palaeoconservation-can-rescue-animals-at-the-edge-of-existen" target="_blank">the southern corroboree frog</a>&nbsp;are threatened in their current habitats which have become more hostile due to climate change. The authors say that if the fossil record shows physically similar frogs living in very different habitats, today’s frogs may benefit by being reintroduced into similar environments.